A crystal ball showing picks and predictions for the 2023-24 basketball season

Analyzing the Betting Performance of Top Coaches' Picks for the 2023-24 NCAA Season

Posted at: 9/10/2023

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As basketball enthusiasts and avid bettors gear up for another thrilling NCAA season, it's worth taking a look at the betting performance of the top teams chosen by about 100 coaches in the Candid Coaches series. Their insights, combined with statistical data from the 2022-23 season, provide a detailed landscape of what we might expect in the coming season. CBS Sports Gary Parish asked 100 top coaches who was going to be the best NCAA basketball team in the upcoming 2023-24 season. Here's what he found out...

Coaches' Top Picks for 2023-24:

  1. Kansas (45.4%): Touted for its blend of youth and experience, Kansas is expected to dominate this season, especially with additions like Hunter Dickinson. Bill Self's stellar coaching, combined with Kansas' ability to seamlessly reload its team, puts them on top of many coaches' lists.

  2. Purdue (17.9%): With almost the entire squad from the previous season returning, many believe that Purdue could be on the path to clinch both the Final Four and the national championship this year.

  3. Duke (12.3%): Despite having a young team, the belief is that under Coach Jon Scheyer, Duke will peak towards the end of the season.

  4. Michigan State (12.3%): With a combination of talent, experience, and the legendary Tom Izzo at the helm, Michigan State is a force to reckon with, even if some consider Hunter Dickinson's addition to be overrated.

  5. Marquette (4.7%): Marquette's potential is recognized under Coach Shaka Smart, with a belief that the current team has what it takes to win it all.

ShotQuality Betting Analysis (2022-23 Season):

Team

Win%

SQ Win%

Over Win %

Under Win %

Favorite Win %

Underdog Win%

Florida Atlantic

89%

83%

54%

45%

89%

90%

Houston

89%

78%

43%

51%

88%

100%

Connecticut

79%

74%

53%

46%

83%

60%

Gonzaga

83%

77%

58%

41%

82%

100%

Marquette

80%

75%

47%

52%

77%

100%

Purdue

82%

77%

42%

57%

78%

87%

Kansas

77%

69%

47%

52%

85%

66%

Duke

75%

55%

38%

61%

85%

50%

Kentucky

64%

76%

61%

38%

72%

66%

Michigan St.

61%

44%

50%

50%

66%

60%

Key Takeaways:

  1. Best Overall Win Percentage Florida Atlantic and Houston stand out with an impressive 89% win rate.

  2. Dark Horses in Shot Quality Teams like Kentucky showcase a higher SQ Win% compared to their actual Win%. This indicates they might be performing better than their actual scores suggest.

  3. Underdog Performance Houston and Gonzaga had a 100% win rate when they were the pre-game underdogs, indicating their ability to upset predictions.

  4. Over/Under Insights Kentucky and Duke seem to be strong contenders for the 'over bet', with 61% and 38% respectively. On the flip side, Purdue and Duke are more consistent with 'under bets' at 57% and 61%.

  5. Favorite Standouts Florida Atlantic and Duke both have an 85% win rate when they were pegged as the pre-game favorites.

Final Thoughts:

While coaches' insights provide a valuable perspective on team dynamics and potential, the statistical analysis from the previous season offers tangible evidence of team performance. As we approach the 2023-24 NCAA season, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions and analyses play out on the court. Whether you're a fan or a bettor, this promises to be an exhilarating season!

Thanks to ShotQuality for the data 🙌🏾

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