New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun: In-depth WNBA Playoff Matchup Preview & Prediction (9-25-23)

Statue of Liberty and Connecticut Sun Showdown

New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: A Deep Dive into the Key Matchup Stats

Posted at: 9/23/2023

The upcoming game between the New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun promises to be an exhilarating contest, especially when we dig into their conference-only stats. Let's delve into some key numbers to see where each team stands and what we might expect from this matchup.

Connecticut Sun Betting Preview

The Connecticut Sun have been in formidable shape, not having tasted a first-round playoff defeat since 2021. They have emerged victorious in 7 of their last 11 outings. On average, the Sun is netting 82.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting while limiting their opponents to 71 points on a shooting efficiency of 41.9 percent. DeWanna Bonner continues to be a pivotal player, averaging 20.5 points and 10 boards. Alyssa Thomas isn't far behind with an average of 20.5 points and 8 dimes. Rebecca Allen and Tiffany Hayes also contribute significantly to the team's efforts. The Sun boasts a commendable 46 percent accuracy from the 3-point line and a free throw success rate of 76.9 percent. Defensively, they've held opponents to a mere 28.6 percent from beyond the arc while securing 33 boards per game.

New York Liberty Betting Preview

The New York Liberty have shown resilience, avoiding first-round exits in the playoffs since 2021. However, recent form suggests a need for improvement, with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. The Liberty averages 71 points, shooting at 41.9 percent, but defensively, they've allowed opponents 82.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Key players include Kayla McBride, with an impressive average of 22 points and 5.5 rebounds, and Napheesa Collier, who has been contributing 20 points and 1.5 assists. Rachel Banham and Bridget Carleton have also been essential cogs in the Liberty machinery. The team's 3-point shooting stands at 28.6 percent, and they've achieved a free throw rate of 76.9 percent. On the defensive front, they've let opponents shoot at 46 percent from the 3-point range and have managed to collect 33.5 rebounds per game.

Offensive and Defensive Metrics

Adjusted SQ (ADJ SQ): Both teams are fairly balanced when it comes to their adjusted shot quality. The Liberty has an offensive ADJ SQ of 1.05 (ranking 4th) and a defensive ADJ SQ of 1.05 (ranking 9th). On the other hand, the Sun has the same offensive ADJ SQ of 1.05 (ranking 9th) but boasts a superior defensive ADJ SQ, again at 1.05 but ranking 4th.
Rim and 3 Rate: The Liberty has a solid offensive Rim and 3 rate of 66.2% (2nd in the league) and a defensive rate of 61.4% (4th). The Sun trails slightly with their offensive rate at 61.4% (4th) but ties with the Liberty defensively, ranking 2nd.
Shot Selection: New York's shot selection ranks 12th on offense and 8th on defense. The Sun, however, places 1st offensively but dips to 8th on the defensive end.
Shot Making: The Sun shines brightest here, ranking 1st both offensively and defensively. The Liberty lags a bit, ranking 5th offensively and 8th defensively.
Free Throw Rate (FTR): Both teams are efficient in getting to the line, with the Liberty boasting a 28.7% rate (2nd) and the Sun at 23.0% (3rd).
Rim and 3 SQ PPP: The Liberty and Sun are neck-and-neck with both teams having an offensive PPP of 1.12. However, the Sun has a slight edge defensively, ranking 9th to the Liberty's 5th.

Regression Stats

These stats provide insights into where teams might have room to improve or where they might regress.

Finishing at the Rim: The Liberty's offense doesn't show regression, but their defense has a 2% regression rate. The Sun's teams are stable at 0% regression both offensively and defensively.
3-Point Shooting: Both teams show a 1% regression on offense and defense.
Midrange: The Liberty regresses by 8% on offense and 9% on defense, whereas the Sun shows 6% and 12% respectively.
Post-Up: The Liberty has no regression offensively but shows 6% defensively. The Sun, however, shows 0% regression on offense and a higher 12% on defense.
Free Throws: Both teams are steady at 0% regression on both ends of the floor.

Shot Type Stats

A deeper look into how each team performs and defends against specific shot types:

Cut: The Liberty averages 0.92 SQ PPP (10th) on 6% frequency offensively, while the Sun sits at 0.96 SQ PPP (12th) with a 5% frequency.
Finishing at the Rim: The Liberty is more frequent with a 49% rate (7th) and 1.11 SQ PPP. The Sun is slightly behind with a 43% rate (2nd) and 1.12 SQ PPP.
Half Court: Both teams are strong here, with the Liberty boasting a 100% frequency (4th) and 1.03 SQ PPP. The Sun also has a 100% frequency but ranks 6th with a 1.03 SQ PPP.
Midrange: The Liberty takes 20% of their shots from midrange (10th) at 0.84 SQ PPP. The Sun, however, is more efficient, ranking 3rd with a 24% frequency and 0.86 SQ PPP.
Post-Up: Both teams are fairly even here, with the Liberty at 4% frequency (10th) and 0.90 SQ PPP and the Sun at 6% frequency (4th) with 0.93 SQ PPP.

In conclusion, this matchup between the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun is poised to be a thrilling encounter. Both teams have their strengths and areas of improvement, but the numbers suggest that it's going to be a closely contested battle. Basketball enthusiasts, mark your calendars and brace yourselves for an epic game!